alt Hacker News> One loss sets you back 10-20 wins.
didn't look at the numbers, but this one sentence reminds me of selling options for 'passive income' (don't do that)
Replies
pjc50 • yesterday at 9:51 PM
LTCM doing that was an early example of "too big to fail". In the late 90s.
doctorpangloss • yesterday at 5:29 PM
Quintessential hustler logic: inability to compare the gains from wins to inevitable losses.
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I drew the same analogy. You put up $0.95, a YES gambler only puts $0.05 (ignoring spread); you're providing "insurance" in case of a YES. In theory, even if the market prices reflected the true probability of the event happening, the more expensive side should be netting some "insurance premium" on average, right? Not sure, and idk how to observe if that's happening.
Polymarket is also holding onto the money in the meantime. Idk what they do with it, but it's not like some other platforms where they at least work with a bank to earn you some tiny interest on it.