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dheeratoday at 5:24 PM4 repliesview on HN

Honest question: Why in all hell would you open source this?

I have been making money with a bot off a statistical anomaly in prediction markets lately. There is no way in hell I will open source it or tell you what that anomaly is because I have capacity back-tested it and there are so many players in the market; if all of HN and Github start downloading and use my code it WILL cease to work.

Put another way, your orders are helping move the market and price the market more efficiently; that's the market compensating you for pricing things better. If a thousand people run your strategy, prices will get moved to exactly the point where your strategy stops working. You effectively split that pie with a thousand people.


Replies

boothbytoday at 5:48 PM

Well, it's not making money, for one.

debo_today at 5:26 PM

Because they are doing it for fun?

unclad5968today at 5:42 PM

All strategies get priced in eventually. This is basically the thesis of index funds. It's fine to make money in the interim, but that isn't everyone's goal.

sterlingcrispintoday at 5:36 PM

for the lulz obviously

you wouldn't get it