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traderj0eyesterday at 6:01 PM2 repliesview on HN

It's not. But also a lot of those stats thrown around are misleading.


Replies

pinkmuffinereyesterday at 6:08 PM

If the average no costs less than 73 cents, but the 73% of all polymarkets resolve to No, that would imply that the nothing-ever-happens strategy here is profitable. Are you claiming that it is profitable? Or are one of those premises incorrect?

Edit: conversely, if the average no costs _more_ than 73 cents, but the 73% of all polymarkets resolve to No, that would imply that an everything-always-happens strategy is profitable (neglecting slippage)

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cheschireyesterday at 6:09 PM

Are you willing to pay $.27 for that perspective? Sounds like we have a market!