alt Hacker NewsWhy would outcomes match perceptions?
The whole premise of gambling is that they don't
Replies
paulddraper • yesterday at 8:50 PM
But in aggregate they might.
Why would outcomes match perceptions?
The whole premise of gambling is that they don't
But in aggregate they might.
The whole premise of prediction markets is that the few people whose perception do match outcomes make bets to push the money-weighted average perception toward outcomes. If perceptions still don't match outcomes at that point, average return is 0 minus transactions, with high variance.