71 cents*, the bookie gets a cut either way it goes.
Even if a cut isn't taken and there aren't other inefficiencies, any money tied up in long-term predictions is earning 0% instead of whatever the current risk-free rate of return is.
Wouldn't it be 75 cents then? (The cut would come out of higher pricing, since the payout is always a dollar).
Untrue for polymarket. True for kalshi. No bookie fees on polymarket
This is the truth of the matter, ultimately nobody wins except the bookie, who profits either way.