Probably both :)

New models come out with inflated expectations, then they are adjusted/nerfed/limited for whatever reason. Our expectations remain at previous levels.

New models come out with once again inflated expectations, but now it's double inflation, because we're still on the previous level of expectations. And so on.

I think it's likely to get worse. Providers are running out of training data, and running bigger and bigger models to more and more people is prohibitively expensive. So they will try to keep the hype up while the gains are either very small or non-existent.