alt Hacker NewsIf all one cares about is the accuracy of predictions (i.e. setting aside value judgements vis-a-vis society or fairness), it does seem like "insider trading" should make prediction markets more accurate.
If all one cares about is the accuracy of predictions (i.e. setting aside value judgements vis-a-vis society or fairness), it does seem like "insider trading" should make prediction markets more accurate.
It makes them more accurate at the time the insider places the bet. But to maximise profit, they are incentivised to misdirect before they place the bet (and worse still from society's perspective, are incentivised to take counter-intuitive or downright harmful actions to profit at the expense of people who bet on the view that it made no sense for them to do that)