> The usual suspect would first need to cross Poland, not to mention finishing what they started in Ukraine.

It doesn't look like they can break Ukraine anytime soon. And each month Ukraine bites back pushing the prospect of full-scale war with NATO (or what is left of it) even further.

Poland are in Nato, I'd expect europe wide deployment on an invasion. Itll definitely be volunteer forces at first, but I wouldn't hold my breath on conscripted forces never being deployed if it goes into a quagmire like ukraine.