I don't know what the percentage would be, but we do have some historical precedent that could give us a clue.

Best one I can think of is when bigger websites started actually dropping SSLv3 and TLSv1.0 (and later TLSv1.1) support, cutting off older browsers and operating systems. Google and Amazon still support TLSv1.0, but plenty of others (including Microsoft) have dropped 1.0 and 1.1. HN itself doesn't accept 1.1 anymore either.

Then there's browser support. Lots of websites - big and small - cut off support for Internet Explorer 6 when it was somewhere below 5% marketshare because the juice was no longer worth the squeeze. Of course, few of those actually fully cut off the ability to browse the (now broken) website fully but it's a datapoint suggesting trade-offs can and will be made for this sort of thing. Or to put it in the present: a significant amount of webapps don't support Firefox (3% market share) to the extent their product is completely unusable in it.