OpenAI and Anthropic have realized that their entire business is exactly one open weight model drop away from Chinese labs that matches Opus 4.5 performance.

They realized they have no product or ground to stand on. Once such model drops and once chip manufacturers catch up with demand, they are dead, if their only product is inference.

So OpenAI decided to do weird things like buying up all the hardware that exists or will exist in the next 2 years to buy time to build the product. Then launch things like Sora, ChatGPT shopping, ads etc. They seem to be struggling with this.

Anthropic, being late to the game of hoarding up all the hardware, decided to "buy time" by hiding CoT, implementing KYC (especially for Chinese users), to delay the efforts of distillation. The products they build in the interim are SaaS clones designed from the POV of AI agents and tight integrations with their models.

And it seems like Google is just sitting aside, watching things unfold, since their business model doesn't stand on inference.

The most likely scenario is that OpenAI and Anthropic will still crash and burn when such open model is released.

Figma's survival is still questinable though. Most likely scenario is likely that there's going to be an open source alternative that has AI integration at the core level, rather than an afterthought.