alt Hacker NewsPrediction Markets require insider trading to function... how do people not know this? It's a setup from day one. If you have the knowledge, you're going to cash in, if you don't have the knowledge, you are throwing your money away.
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> But traders weren’t just active on Polymarket: there were similar surges of oil futures trading activity just hours before Trump announced updates to the conflict that would lower oil prices.
Prediction markets are all the buzz, but banning them isn’t fixing the problem. This has happened forever. Let’s not forget there was an unusual amount of put option buying right before 9/11: https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jnlbus/v79y2006i4p1703-1726.ht...
The theory would be that the people without information pay for knowledge. Or to hedge against certain events.
Similarly to how people would pay premium over inusrance
I've never seen an ad from either Kalshi or Polymarket that says "don't play if you aren't an insider."
potentially, each time.
>Prediction Markets require insider trading to function.
And yet there are folks like me who have been on them for years before kalshi/polymarket making a very good side income from them without having insider knowledge.
Prediction markets as a whole are very very inefficient. That's not to say that insider trading doesn't exist but you can't claim that they require insider trading to function.
Most gamblers prescribe to the cost sunk fallacy and keep 'one more time'ing it to bankruptcy.
Math wins over your feels every time.