alt Hacker NewsThis was my thought. If these markets continue allowing insiders, it’ll drive all of the cash from regular people away. So there will be way less money for insiders to win even if they are allowed.
So the perception of insiders is pretty bad for prediction markets as a business imo.
The sooner they knock off the rhetoric about the “theory” behind prediction markets and start thinking about it like a business, the sooner they will take insiders seriously.
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> it’ll drive all of the cash from regular people away
Sweet summer child…
It is widely accepted that this is happening. Dumb money continues to be poured into these markets.
> If these markets continue allowing insiders
What are the chances of large bets being made by anyone who isn’t an insider?
I think the market could adapt if regular people left. Insider trading would become multilayered and complex. Insiders would scheme against lower-level insiders; decisionmakers would try to trick insiders into thinking that one thing will happen before doing the complete opposite thing. The world would become more erratic and unpredictable, even insiders wouldn't know what is going on.
Although Polymarket is currently spending a lot of money trying to market itself to working-class regular people to get hooked and scam their paychecks out of[0]
[0] https://nypost.com/2026/02/12/us-news/nyc-gets-its-first-fre...