alt Hacker News> Those tools seem mostly useful for a Google alternative, scaffolding tedious things, code reviewing, and acting as a fancy search.
Just to get a sense for the rate of change, imagine if you took a survey. Compare what people said about AI tools... 3 years ago, 2 years ago, 1 year ago, 6 months ago. Then think about what is plausible that people will be saying in 3 months, 6 months, 9 months ...
Moving the goalposts has always happened, but it is happening faster than I've ever seen it. Many people seem to redefine their expectations on a monthly basis now. Worse, they seem to be unaware they are doing it.
Fancy search? Ok, I'll bite. Compare today's "fancy search" to what we had ~3 years ago according to your choice of metric. Here's one: minutes spent relative to information found. Today, in ~5 minutes I can do a literature review that would have taken me easily 10+ hours five years ago. We don't need to argue phrasing when we can pick some prototypical tasks and compare them.
We're going to have different takes about where various AI technologies will be in these future timelines. It is much better to run to where the ball is likely to be, even if we have different ideas of where that is.
The human brain, at best, struggles to grasp even linear change. But linear change is not a good way to predict compounding technological change.
Your quoted example to make that point isn't particularly convincing, IMO. Cursor came out in 2023 and everything on that list would be a typical use case, plus ChatGPT for the search replacement.
Of course, it wasn't nearly as effective back then compared to current SOTA models, but none of those are hard to imagine someone recommending Cursor for anytime in 2024 or later.
If OP instead said something like one shotting an entire line of business app with 10k LoC I would agree with your reminder about perspective. But it feels somewhat hype-y to say that goal posts are being moved "monthly" when most of their list has been possible for years.