I strive to be decently Bayesian and embrace uncertainty. I'm sharing my probability estimates because it helps me to stop and think ("is this roughly what I think?" and "let spend a minute making sure before I say so"). But yeah, of course, they are my priors and fuzzy. Hopefully I can reflect I figure them out +/- 15% or so. But at least you can see how my takes compare with each other. And down the road I can see how I did.

Thanks for getting into some of the details ...

>> (1) One possibility is they are having capacity and/or infrastructure problems so the model performance is degraded.

> As far as I understand it, scaling issues would result in increased latency or requests being dropped, not model quality being lower.

Yes, many scaling issues would manifest in that way -- but not all. It seems plausible for Anthropic to have other ways to degrade model performance that don't show up in the latency or reliability metrics. I need to research more... (I'll try to think more on your other points later).