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hedoratoday at 4:42 AM2 repliesview on HN

Stockpiling doesn’t really do much vs. investing in manufacturing.

Contrast the US in the civil war or wwii to the current situation. In both those wars, civilian factories were rapidly converted for the war and manufacturing capabilities were ramped fast.

In Iran, we’ve burned through years or decades of manufacturing capacity and probably used up most of our top tier stockpile.

That only exhausted/destroyed about 33% of Iran’s cruise missile stockpiles. It’s unclear what it did to their drone manufacturing capabilities. It guaranteed they’ll pursue nuclear capabilities moving forward.

At the same time, US investment in manufacturing is tanking due to warmongering and isolationist economic policies.

Iran stalemated us in a month or two, and all the trends I see (education, manufacturing, high tech innovation) point to US capabilities eroding rapidly in the short to medium term.


Replies

15155today at 11:35 AM

> 33% of Iran’s cruise missile stockpiles

Which cruise missiles are you referring to?

dgroshevtoday at 1:37 PM

Being able to stockpile is not the goal, it's a pre-requisite. Having a serious manufacturing capability helps to scale, but you can't convert an iphone assembly line to ballistic missile interceptors, and especially when you don't produce the interceptors at some low rate. There is a lot of technology and know-how that goes into those capabilities, and both get lost if they aren't exercised.

But that means either trashing the output in a few months (emulating Ukraine), or being able to stockpile.

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