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azalemethtoday at 8:36 AM1 replyview on HN

I do often wonder about stories like this in the context of forensic science – my (incomplete!) understanding a lot of the time suspect DNA samples are taken from small areas and amplified significantly with high-cycle count PCR. I'd worry that any jury presented with a statistical argument about a fragment of somebody's DNA being very unlikely ("1 in 100 million") to be different to the sample found at the scene would not be aware of all of the potential systematic reasons why the actual true probability may be much, much higher.


Replies

Terr_today at 8:57 AM

Probability seems to be one of those things humans habitually mess-up at.

"The chances of this person's unique DNA showing up at the scene are a zillion to one!"

"What does that really mean when the sample also contains unique DNA for a hundred other people? Did all of them commit the crime as a group?"