> The bet is not “are you 100% sure a CRQC [cryptographically-relevant quantum computer] will exist in 2030?”, the bet is “are you 100% sure a CRQC will NOT exist in 2030?”

— from https://words.filippo.io/crqc-timeline/ "A Cryptography Engineer’s Perspective on Quantum Computing Timelines", the OP's blog post from two weeks ago, and the first link in this one. [HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47662234]

Yes today's quantum computers cannot factor 21, but enough progress is happening fast enough that now there's a >1% chance they will go much further in (say) five years.

More broadly (outside of relevance to cryptography), quantum computers already can (almost certainly) beat classical computers on certain contrived (useless) problems: see https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.09901 "Has quantum advantage been achieved?" for a summary of the current state.