alt Hacker News> Agents, by making it easiest to write code, means there will be a lot more software. Economists would call this an instance of Jevons paradox. Each of us will write more programs, for fun and for work.
There is already so much software out there, which isn't used by anyone. Just take a look at any appstore. I don't understand why we are so obsessed with cranking out even more, whereas the obvious usecase for LLMs should be to write better software. Let's hope the focus shifts from code generation to something else. There are many ways LLMs can assist in writing better code.
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Sometimes “better” means “customized for my specific use case.” I expect that there will be a lot of custom software that never appears in any app store.
That's not what Jevons paradox means though. He's just name dropping some concept.
Jevons paradox would be if despite software becoming cheaper to produce the total spend on producing software would increase because the increase in production outruns the savings
Jevons paradox applies when demand is very elastic, i.e. small changes in price cause large changes in quantity demanded. It's a property of the market.
> I don't understand why we are so obsessed with cranking out even more... the obvious usecase for LLMs should be to write better software
I honestly think this is ideal. Video games aside, I think one day we'll look back and realize just how insane it was that we built software for millions or even billions of users to use. People can now finally build the software that does exactly what they've wanted their software to do without competing priorities and misaligned revenue models working against them. One could argue this kind of software, by definition, is higher quality.
The most recent software paradigm has been SaaS - software as a service. Capex is distributed among all customers and opex is paid for through the subscription. This avoids the large upfront capex and provides easy cost and revenue projections for both sides of the transaction. The key to SaaS is that the software is maximally generic. Meaning is works well for the largest number of people. This necessitates making tough cuts on UX and functionality when they only benefit small parts of the userbase.
Vibe coding or LLM accelerated development is going to turn this on its head. Everyone will be able to afford custom software to fit their specific needs and preferences. Where Salesforce currently has 150,000 customers, imagine 150,000 customers all using their own customised CRM. The scope for software expansion is unbelievably large right now.
> Let's hope the focus shifts from code generation to something else. There are many ways LLMs can assist in writing better code.
My view is actually the opposite. Software now belongs to cattle, not pet. We should use one-offs. We should use micro-scale snippets. Speaking language should be equivalent to programming. (I know, it's a bit of pipe dream)
In that sense, exe.dev (and tailscale) is a bit like pet-driven projects.
Both will likely happen to some degree.
As for the average quality: it’s unclear.
My intuition is that agents lift up the floor to some degree, but at the same time will lead to more software being produced that’s of mediocre quality, with outliers of higher quality emerging at a higher rate than before.
Alas, we shifted from quality to quantity somewhere in the mid 19th century.
There will be only 1 Microsoft® Excel, 1 Google Sheets and 1 LibreOffice and the rest are billions of dead vibe-coded "Excel killers" that no-one uses.
Yes, and most applications still have GUIs, where we could be just talking to an LLM instead.
Big agree. I would love the focus to be on contributing, improving, and consolidating around existing open-source solutions. Unfortunately, most AI-enabled contributions have been slop and the maintenance burden of open source has increased
I think we, as engineers, are a bit stuck on what “software” has traditionally been. We think of systems that we carefully build, maintain, and update. Deterministic systems for interacting with computers. I think these “traditional” systems will still be around. But AI has already changed the way users interact with computers. This new interaction will give rise to another type of software. A more disposable type of software.
I believe right now we are still in the phase of “how can AI help engineers write better software”, but are slowly shifting to “how can engineers help AI write better software.” This will bring in a new herd of engineers with completely different views on what software is, and how to best go about building computer interactions.