alt Hacker NewsThere's going to be a day when we look back at $200/mo price tags and say "wow that was cheap".
The breakeven at this price is 6 minutes of productivity per work day for an engineer making $200k.
Replies
Everyone is arguing why I'm wrong or that I should have presented more data.
You've got the real insight with this claim.
This is the way the world is moving. Open source isn't even going where the ball is being tossed. There is no leadership here.
You're spot on.
If the cost to deliver a unit of business automation is:
A. $1M with human labor
B. $700k human labor + open source models
C. $500k human labor + $10,000 in claude code max (duration of project)
D. $250k with humans + $200k claude code "mythos ultra"
Your poor college students and hobbyists will be on option "B". But this won't be as productive as evidenced by the human labor input costs.
Option "C" will begin to disappear as models/compute get more expensive and capable.
Option "A" will be nonviable. Humans just won't be able to keep up.
Open source strictly depends on models decreasing their capability gap. But I'm not seeing it.
Targeting home hardware is the biggest smell. It's showing that this is non-serious, hobby tinkery and has no real role in business.
For open source to work and not to turn into a toy, the models need to target data center deployment.
Okay, but then by that logic a person making only $20k would break even at about an hour.
Are you suggesting that someone making $20k should be spending $200/mo on Claude?