This is plausible. Assuming it’s true, we would see the adoption of vibe coding at a faster rate amongst inexperienced developers. I think that’s true.

A counterpoint is Google saying the vast majority of their code is written by AI. The developers at Google are not inexperienced. They build complex critical systems.

But it still feels odd to me, this contradiction. Yes there’s some skill to using AI but that doesn’t feel enough to explain the gap in perception. Your point would really explain it wonderfully well, but it’s contradicted by pronouncements by major companies.

One thing I would add is that code quality is absolutely tanking. PG mentioned YC companies adopted AI generated code at Google levels years ago. Yesterday I was using the software of one such company and it has “Claude code” levels of bugginess. I see it in a bunch of startups. One of the tells is they seem to experience regressions, which is bizarre. I guess that indicates bugs with their AI generated tests.