"Not actually capable of understanding" is worthless unfalsifiable garbage, in my eyes. Philosophy at its absolute worst rather than science.
Trying to drag an operational definition of "actual understanding" out of anyone doing this song and dance might as well be pulling teeth. People were trying to make the case for decades, and there's still no ActualUnderstandingBench to actually measure things with.
No, it is partially falsifiable. LLMs clearly don't understand the concept of quantity. They fail at tests designed to assess number understanding in dogs and pigeons; in fact they are quite likely to fail these tests, because they are wildly out of distribution.
We don't know how to demonstrate actual understanding, but we sure can demonstrate a lack of it. When it comes to abstract concepts like "three" or even "more," LLMs have a clear lack of understanding. Birds and mammals do not.