alt Hacker News> Having seen nuclear weapons not used post WWII ... does that inform us about "the odds"
This is what Bayesian prediction does
> save for out of band behaviour by individuals that averted use and escalation?
This is kind of the point being made.
> Having seen nuclear weapons not used post WWII ... does that inform us about "the odds"
This is what Bayesian prediction does
> save for out of band behaviour by individuals that averted use and escalation?
This is kind of the point being made.
> This is what Bayesian prediction does
Repeatedly, in a reproducible way, for events in the arrow of time? We can test this by going back to 1945 and running forward again?
> This is kind of the point being made.
Was it?
( assume I did a little math some decades past and have some poor grasp of Bayesian statistics )