Context:
(1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1].
(2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].)
Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the Gulf and Iranian hegemony over the Persian Gulf. I’d expect to see an Emirati deal with Egypt and India next if this hypothesis is correct.
What I don’t yet see is the ambition of the endgame. Is it Saudi Arabia backing off in Africa? Or is it seizing the Musandam Peninsula, islands of the Strait and possibly even territory on the other side?
[1] https://www.ft.com/content/99073d6e-4b57-417f-88fb-7a2c0e55e...
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/30/world/middleeast/yemen-sa...
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Mutual_Defence_Agree...
Someone's going to have to provide me with an explainer of how many different proxy forces are involved in Yemen. I can barely keep up with Lebanon and have forgotten Syria.
You are missing this interesting, and confidential until now, deployment of Israeli forces in UAE:
"Israel sent "Iron Dome" system and troops to UAE" - https://www.axios.com/2026/04/26/israel-iron-dome-uae
Also...their central bank governor quietly asked the US Treasury for a dollar swap line...Combined with the Pakistan $3.5B recall and OPEC exit, that is three coordinated moves of a cashflow stressed country...and of course the US is being asked to extend taxpayer backed dollar credit to the same royal family that bought 49% of Trump's crypto company four days before inauguration...
https://fortune.com/2026/04/19/uae-talks-us-possible-financi...
Saudi Arabia and Somalia agreed upon military cooperation early this is year. Egypt and Turkey are in this axis as well. Somaliland was recognized by Israel late last year. UAE and Ethiopia are on this axis. Part of the endgame might be lifting the Middle East from a transit zone to a logistics hub.
"Emirati-Israeli axis"
I'd add the US to that as well. Both the UAE and Israel are highly (practically solely) dependent on US for their military tech and supplies.
> Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the Gulf and Iranian hegemony over the Persian Gulf. I’d expect to see an Emirati deal with Egypt and India next if this hypothesis is correct.
Don't Egypt and Israel hate each other though? Could UAE feasibly align with both?
As I recall, it was Saudi Arabia that largely bank rolled Pakistan's "not party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty" weapons program [Ω](?) .
[Ω] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_and_weapons_of_mass_d...
So there's that.
Thank you for this analysis! MSM doesn’t seem to be covering this and it’s hard to know what’s going on if you’re not familiar with the region.
> Egypt
Already aligned with the KSA [0]
> India
Already aligned with the UAE [1]
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IMO the Pakistan aspect is overstated. This is a reversion to the norm of KSA-Pakistan relations before Imran Khan completely destroyed it by fully aligning behind Qatar and Turkiye when both were competing against KSA.
[0] - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/5/egypt-says-it-shares...
[1] - https://thediplomat.com/2026/01/india-uae-embark-on-a-strate...
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Shouldn’t UAE be upset their entire economy has absolutely rammed by the war started by Israel? At least the Saudis have pipelines - UAE is fucked