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Animatstoday at 6:11 AM6 repliesview on HN

What did they write that article with?

The year is 2026. The unemployment rate just printed 4.28%, AI capex is 2% of GDP (650bn), AI adjacent commodities are up 65% since Jan-23 and approximately 2,800 data centers are planned for construction in the US. In spite of the current displacement narrative – job postings for software engineers are rising rapidly, up 11% YoY. ... We wrote last week that we see the near-term dynamics around the AI capex story as inflationary, but given markets are focused on the forward narrative, we outline a more constructive take on the end state below. Before that, however, it’s worth reflecting that the imminent disintermediation narrative rests on the speed of diffusion.

The chart "Job Postings For Software Engineers Are Rapidly Rising" seems to show a rise from 65 to 71 for "Indeed job postings" from October 2025 to March 2025. That's a 9% increase. Then they inflate that by extrapolating it to a year. The graph exaggerates the change by depressing the zero line to way off the bottom and expanding the scale. This could just be noise.

The chart "Adoption Rate of Generative AI at Work and Home versus the Rate for Other Technologies" has one (1) data point for Generative AI.

This article bashes some iffy numbers into supporting their narrative.

Suggested reading: [1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Lie_with_Statistics


Replies

bupperminttoday at 6:23 AM

Worth seeing the whole chart in perspective:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE

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rswailtoday at 7:02 AM

I've noticed this "XYZ just printed rate%". WTAF does "printed" mean in this usage?

Do they mean "published" or "latest" or what?

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littlexsparkeetoday at 7:06 AM

Does any serious SaaS HR use Indeed? Whenever I hear that is the source, I immediately question it because companies I look up use Ashby, Lever, Greenhouse, Jobvite, Dover, etc.

edit: nvm they probably pull in results from these ATS

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choppafacetoday at 6:16 AM

While I like that you debunked the article . . . I want to hear an argument for where the SWE job market can grow in a post-Claude world. I might expect something like: “CEOs are naturally greedy. So after trimming the team, they then recognized (versus “replacing” people with AI) they could actually accomplish _more_ with more engineers, each empowered with AI.

But I do like folks calling out the OP for being AI spam.

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emp17344today at 7:06 AM

Just go look at the chart: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE

It’s continuously updated, and postings are still on the rise as of last week, so your criticism doesn’t make much sense.