alt Hacker NewsAt the current rate, open sourced models are expected to surpass cloud models within a couple years based on a study I read a couple days ago.
Looking back at chatGPT and claude a couple years ago, very small Qwen models are basically equal in coding to what those cloud based models could do then. Also factoring in scaling laws, a 9b going to 18b is roughly a 40% increase, whereas 18b to 35b is 20%, I expect there will be a change of at least price in cloud based models.
Adobe used to be $600 per month, then it became $20 when distribution scaled.
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While this might be true I’m worried about the hardware side of things.
What if you have a good enough model but the cloud model providers are better in procuring hardware for interference?
> Adobe used to be $600 per month, then it became $20 when distribution scaled.
What product is this referring to? I haven't heard about Adobe having any offering that is quite that expensive?
If you have a link to the study you read, please share it.
Adobe never costed $600 per month. They had Creative Suites upwards of $3000 but that was before SaaS
That makes no sense, though, and reeks of extrapolating a trend way beyond the conditions in which it is valid.
The simple truth is, cloud models are always going to be strictly superior to open ones, simply because cloud model vendors can run those same open models too. And they still retain economies of scale and efficiency that operating large data centers full of specialized hardware, so at the very least they can always offer open models at price per token that's much less than anyone else's electricity bill for compute. But on top of that, they still have researchers working on models and everything around them; they can afford to put top engineers on keeping their harness always ahead of whatever is currently most popular on Github, etc.