That is a petty big assumption (aka bullshit) unless you have direct insight the inner workings of the big US labs. Just because it isn’t published doesn’t mean that innovation is not happening.
Sam Altman certainly got all lovey-dovey and less arrogant after DeepSeek came into prominence at most 3-6 month gap, if there was something mind blowing, Sam would’ve gotten money out of Apple and the same thing applies to Google if they had something mind blowing, they would’ve gotten more than a $1 billion refund neither happened. The bubble is near…
That's an unfalsifiable assertion with no evidence to support it, while all the visible evidence we do have points to stagnation and merely incremental pushes among the big proprietary model makers. Even Claude Mythos, which was 'teased' to the public but not released, is reportedly mostly a scaled-up model that takes massive compute resources to run (and lengthy agentic loops to achieve its reported results in computer security). The polar opposite to what the Chinese labs are releasing now.