The bottleneck was ALWAYS the code, which is why everything was built around it.

This is the key line right here:

> Negotiating, agreeing, communicating the shared picture of what we are building has become the work. And it’s just as hard as it was.

But if software (via code) is what we ultimately produce and sell, how did we get here? The main reason is the following lemma:

Lemma A: "The loss of fidelity of what can fit in any one person's head scales superlinearly (exponentially?) as the scope of work scales up." Or more colloquially: "It is impossible to fit a large scope of work in any one person's head." This is largely because any non-trivial task is a fractal of smaller dependencies.

The chain of logic to today's situation is then obvious:

1. Writing code requires humans who are slow and expensive.

2. To do large things we need large groups of humans.

3. As the number of humans grows (like beyond 5? 10?) it becomes impossible to keep them aligned, largely because Lemma A.

4. We need to coordinate these humans, so: enter managers!

5. But even a manager can't manage too many people and coordinate with all other managers because, again, Lemma A. Enter hierarchy!

6. As the size of the organization grows, so does the coordination overhead (exponentially, if Google AI overview is to be believed) until as,that quote surmises, the majority of the work is just that.

7. Coordination costs (or "Conway Overhead" as I call them) are very well understood in the literature, but this also brings in undesirable dynamics like bureaucracy, politics, organizational metrics (also due to Lemma A, but now triggering GoodHart's law!) and eventually territorial disputes and empire-building. Lots of friction and subtle mis-alignments.

As you can see the overhead scales superlinearly with the number of leaf workers added. And for the same reason, once the leaf workers are decimated because one worker can now do the work of a whole team, the entire organizational overhead above that is gone, which is also a superlinear change! Assume a conservative 2:1 reduction in ICs and a 1:5 manager:reportee ratio, a simplistic hierarchy that was:

1 CEO -> 5 VPs -> 25 Dirs -> 125 Managers -> 625 ICs

now becomes something like:

1 CEO -> 12 SVPs -> 60 Sr. Managers -> 310 Sr. ICs.

Not only did that eliminate 300 ICs (mostly junior I suspect) it took out 60 managers and removed an entire layer of Directors from the hierarchy! Worse, the leaf-layer will probably get decimated 5:1 not 2:1, and this will also eliminate coordination-specific roles like Program Managers. The rest of the hierarchy is much fewer but mostly more experienced (or politically savvy) people. They will be paid more, but not superlinearly more, of course, what do you think this is, socialism?

It's very much a pyramid scheme of cards built on that one bottleneck. And this bottleneck applies for pretty much all knowledge work. Once that bottleneck opens up, everything collapses. This is why I fear that the coming job changes are going to be much more disruptive that people realize, something I'm extra concerned about as a parent of high-schoolers.