Hmmm, I think I disagree with this.
I estimate that I'm now spending about 10 to 30 hours less time a week in the mechanical parts of writing and refactoring code, researching how to plumb components together, and doing "figure out how to do unfamiliar thing" research.
All of those hours are time that can now be spent doing "careful consideration" (or just being with my family or at the gym or reading a book, which is all cognitively valuable as well).
Now, I suppose I agree that if timelines accelerate ahead of that amount of regained time, then I'm net worse off, but that's not the current situation at the moment, in my experience.
Yeah! I mean, who needs to LEARN how to to these things properly when you can just let an autocorrect on steroids hallucinate the closest thing to “barely working”. Right?
10 to 30 hours saved on not learning new things! Hurray!
Maybe we do different things. Not that you are wrong about spending less time on things that you don't care about, but at the same time all that mechanical things helps you build a really good mental model of your product from high level design to individual classes. If I already have a good mental model of that I can direct AI to make really good changes fast, if I don't I will get things done ... but it does end up with less than ideal changes that compounds over time.
What you said: "figure out how to do unfamiliar thing" -- is correct, and will get things done, but overall quality, maintainability or understanding how individual pieces work...that's what you don't get. One can argue who care about all that as AI can take care of that or already can. I don't think its true today at-least.