alt Hacker NewsI tend to go back to this article when I discuss these markets with people https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd ... in particular, these markets are designed to tease out the "surprisingly popular" answer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surprisingly_popular because they incentivize divergence from average response.
You'll note from "Challenges and solution approaches" that it comes with significant caveats and is easily undermined.