> Try it yourself. Pick a topic that is important to you. Try searching Polymarket for probabilities, versus asking Claude about it. I wager you’ll prefer Claude’s take, even if it is less accurate. For one thing, Claude can speak to issues that are not properly resolvable forecasting questions.

I thought this was the very thing we wanted to avoid by creating reputation or money based prediction platforms rewarding statistical accuracy. We already have plenty of pundits speculating inaccurately about vague things they don't know much about.

We don't need AI to get more of that!