alt Hacker NewsGreat. You see a shape in graphs. And that shape tells you that _at some unknown point in the future_ progress will slow (but likely not stop).
Now back to the point, what reason do you have to believe progress will stop soon? If you have no reason, then it sounds like you agree with OP.
Which makes the patronizing sarcasm all that much more nauseating.
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le-mark • today at 1:10 PM
Nausea aside, what evidence does anyone have that “super intelligence” of the sort your argument alludes to is even possible? Because that’s what we’re really talking about; greater than human intelligence on this sort of academic task. For example; When llms start contributing meaningfully to their own development, that would be a convincing indicator imo.
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Hmm, I don’t know, maybe the fact that 4.6, 4.7, 5.3, 5.4, 5.5, 3.0, 3.1 are all marginal improvements?