alt Hacker NewsI struggle to understand the logic (in general, the way people are talking), normally efficiencies come with increases in production and scale and use-cases.
So of 10% of lawyers get AI-d away, let’s say, the remaining 90% are 1.1x+ efficient and also up against other lawyers enjoying the same… work might go up. And on the customer side there is sooooo much BS with lawyers, but if both lawyer and customer can communicate faster or better with the LLMs, we should see more better cases with better dialog and case handling. Again, the total amount of lawyering could go up a lot. And then we have the cases prohibitive without the LLMs, now possible for big money. Better LLM empowered lawyers should be able to create new and more lawyer work.
As it stands I see people selling services that are subsidized by VC, template jobs we’d be doing faster with copy paste but it’s not copyright infringement when OpenAI does it, and a rush for valuations to soak up VC because the business model isn’t there. I’m seeing a huge uptick in visual bugs on large commercial platforms and customer facing apps, and don’t feel OpenAI is gonna kill Office anytime soon… or Chromium… or Steam… or emacs…
Call me an optimist, but I think those LLM pump and dumpers are creating a wave of fear that would be quite different if they weren’t lying and trying to boost an IPO. Chat GPT 2 was too dangerous to release, lul, and the class action suits are just getting started.
An actual lawyer replacing tech company should sell lawyering for infini-money, not pens that’ll totally 10x your lawyering (bro).
And what do those 10% of lawyers do? Every other industry also got reduced by 10+%, its not like they have a job elsewhere.
So.... they just starve in the streets?
Even if some other, arguably better job comes along, would they retrain for it? (You can say yes, but take a look at the long history of people choosing to join a cult and vote for an orange moron instead of learning a new skill).
Either you're convinced you won't be too badly affected and will gladly watch huge swaths of people suffer, or you're deluded enough to think that it will really, truly be different this time. In any case, I hope you get the worst results of what you preach.