alt Hacker News> At some point, you can let a less smart model hammer at a problem for longer and get to the same result, and as long as you are not involved it comes to the same thing.
Is that true? I find the smarter models can just be effective when smaller models can't. It isn't a matter of just waiting longer.
it's almost certainly not true yet but at some point there might be an equilibrium reached of speed Vs quality (and let's not forget, cost) where it's true for most of what you do.
Perhaps you'd still turn to hosted models for the hardest tasks, but most tasks go local. It does seem like that would make demand go down significantly.
Of course that's all predicated on model advances plateauing, or at least getting increasingly more expensive for incremental improvements, such that local open source models can catch up on that speed/quality/cost curve. But there is a fair amount of evidence that's happening. The models are still getting noticably better, but relative improvement does seem to be slowing, and cost is seemingly only going up.