> But I guess I couldn't read the future in terms of which one would win out!

After Linus Torvalds gave this talk at Google in 2007, it was clear he would win. (Is there a better quality video somewhere?)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idLyobOhtO4

But I agree: Mercurial was definitely friendlier for people who didn't have time time to go through the technicalities of git. To use git smoothly you pretty much need to learn how it works internally.