alt Hacker NewsI think sports betting is a lot less harmful than prediction markets. With sports betting if someone throws a game to get a pay day, for instance, the only real consequence is on the reputation of the sport. In prediction markets, people can do all sorts of awful things to make money as insiders..
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There's a pretty decent counter-argument though: Prediction markets are just a market for users to counterparty each-other. Which means, technically, for every trade there is a winner and a loser, and both the winner and the loser are generally just normal people (or market makers). Polymarket/Kalshi just take X% on the top as a fee. Versus, with sports betting, the counterparty is the casino. Its the difference of trying to outsmart a massive casino, versus a more peer-to-peer system; the potential for ROI is (probably) higher in prediction markets.
I am still very, very anti prediction market, to be clear. But that is one reason why I would agree with a soft statement like "prediction markets are less harmful than sports betting" (in much the same way that a handgun is less harmful than a fully automatic rifle).
Yeah, prediction markets are like if you could bet on arbitrary decisions a coach or manager might make. Like starting lineup or different trades of players between teams or the size of a players contract in dollars, rather than events that happen during gameplay. There are people who know the facts already but the public does not.
First, over 90% of the wagers on Polymarket and Kalshi are already on sports (quoting John Oliver's Last Week Tonight on that one). Despite the headlines, Kalshi and Polymarket are mainly just sportsbooks.
Second, while yes, some of the markets available on prediction markets can push people to do awful things, there are plenty that are harmless. I'm cherry picking to make an extreme point, but I would so much rather have someone betting on what the temperature in Los Angeles is going to be tomorrow on Kalshi than betting on who will win the little league world series on DraftKings.
I support regulation saying certain things should not be allowed to be bet on, but allowing bets on morally questionable things isn't a quality unique to prediction markets.
Most available data suggests that sports betting is much worse for the people making the bets, as it better targets people with poor impulse control. Bad bets in political markets aren't causing measurable increases in bankruptcy and domestic violence rates (https://thezvi.substack.com/p/the-online-sports-gambling-exp...).