alt Hacker News> We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens.
They are assuming ~10% global GDP growth instead of ~3%. You probably don't need the same %s if the pie grows a ton.
I'm highly skeptical we get that growth, but if you aren't, it makes it easier to digest.
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And yet the job everyone loves to hate, the humble "burger flipper", continues to resist automation yet command minimum wage labor rates. This future of either being a CEO of a company consisting primarily of AI agents building some monthly subscription-based solution to some trivial digital chores OR manual labor that isn't [yet] fiscally viable to automate seems quite bleak. We'd also need a ton of robot technicians and manufacturing that the US has neither the educational and training institutions to support nor the will of the population to fill. Given the ongoing war on immigration, visas, and foreign-made hardware, if this continues, good luck.
I mean this case with AI-productivity fires itself back when we talk about GDP.
The more AI causes productivity increases, the less and less number of workers will be needed. This will heat up the job market even more and bring salaries down.
Net effect of this productivity increase: less consumption by the masses, even though you may be producing more good and much more efficiently.
A third effect also comes into play that once all this starts to happen, common people, who are generally living paycheck to paycheck, will now start to hesitate towards making any long term investment, housing included. And that indirectly will end up impacting financial and banking sector, which will then impact existing savings, bonds yields and retirement funds, and the recession-like cycle starts.
This productivity increase only makes sense if it is capped to a very small number.. like 20% max. Beyond that, who these companies will even be selling to?
Am I overthinking all this?