>Am I overthinking all this?

Nope, if AI were to realise the hype, you have to take into account macroeconomics. Usually this isn't a problem for most businesses

>The more AI causes productivity increases, the less and less number of workers will be needed. This will heat up the job market even more and bring salaries down.

People also underestimate that the reason why companies are so excited about AI isn't to increase productivity, its to fire workers and crack down on worker rights. They won't lay people off because AI means they don't need as many people to get the job done, they'll fire everyone while doing a much shittier job, because they hate having to abide by worker's rights and pay people