alt Hacker NewsOf course he should be punished but the best lesson here is for bettors. Those who wager on "prediction markets": you are betting against people who have access to more information or can influence the outcome of the wager. Don't waste your money.
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I read a data point that 78% of profits are made by 1% of users on Kalshi
Don't most gamblers already know that its all a scam and the house always wins?
Who says you have to bet against them? In Polymarket you can choose either side of a bet.
We would be much better off as society if bettors and gamblers actually learned from their lessons. Unfortunately that's not how it works.
Also, at least on Polymarket, beware of those who can influence the settlement of the wager, which may settle not in concordance with the actual outcome in reality.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1jki1lj/pol...
The real money is in providing liquidity if you don't have insider knowledge.
Or figure out which bet is insider info and profit?
Yup, same with any kind of betting - sport, even draw games. There are obviously stories that someone managed to "game the system", like a man who figured out how to find winning scratch cards (Mohan Srivastava case) or Željko Ranogajec winning in Keno, but the point is that in the first case it was luck + skills, in the second it was overcoming the TOS by creating a lot of fake accounts, that's why the guy had to give his win back (details of the agreement were not revealed).
You bet against skilled people who set the stakes, so, yes, by observing numbers you can win in Keno, but if you comply to the TOS you will not win big money. The only chance to be able to "game the system" is to bet on something that lotteries brokers does not have time to look at, like 3rd Bulgarian bocce league matches.
The problem is that you need to somehow become an expert in 3rd Bulgarian bocce league and the money which are there are generally small.
I was investigating this (again) when AI showed up, as in theory it makes easier some analysis, but the big guys are also using AI.
That's a very naive take of someone who never professionally traded. There are liquidity providing, market making trading strategies that work in absence of insider information.
This is true of all markets.
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That's sort of the point of prediction markets: they surface insider information by allowing people to profit off of it. The benefit is to people watching the prices, who can then use that information to make better decisions ahead of the answer being revealed to the public. It's not necessarily to market participants, who need to be aware of who else is trading the market and have a credible reason to believe they have better information.