What would happen if some regular Joe, completely unrelated to any other user, watched for bets that could signal insider information and made significant profit themselves, too?
This is where a lot of the crypto scammers on x have moved, selling ai/bots to do this. It seems like the odds slip significantly after these large bets are filled.
fair number of people do this, bunch of free tools to filter by this criteria (brand new account, more than $xx,xxx size), vulnerable to spoofing obviously
This is a trade that is already done by trading businesses. It doesn’t even need to be this explicit; you could for instance dispose one side of a trade to reduce exposure to insiders.
That's called "copy trading", which has been around for decades.
If there's no connection between you and the trade you're copying, there's nothing you can be charged with. Normally there's a natural latency between the "signal" trade (i.e. the trade to copy), and the copy trade, which obviously can alter the profitability. This latency can range from sub-seconds if there's some public ledger, to days/weeks/months if the info is due to disclosure. Obviously when it comes to crypto and public ledgers, we're on the former.
But as soon as you place such trades based on insider trading, that's insider trading.