alt Hacker NewsSome predictions are like "How many shoes will be thrown at the next Bush speech?" Just the presence of the question affects the outcome.
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rithdmc • today at 2:15 PM
For a specific example, see the WNBA green sex toy Polymarket betting debacle.
Right, and that is not some grand secret. Every person taking a side on the bet is aware of that nuance for any trivially gamed market. If you think the size of the market is sufficient to incentivize somebody to do so then that would obviously increase the yes odds.
It's akin to betting on penny stocks in the market where you are also aware that a single person could dramatically shift the market one way or the other if they wanted so you're betting not just on the stock's performance, but also on the meta-market.