> If you're a CA you can just issue a cert and not publish it in the CT logs. You're not supposed to do that, but there is nothing stopping it.
Browsers have mandated CT logging for years and will not accept such a certificate.
Why is it so common to incorrectly assume that the people who came up with CT were stupid?
> Browsers have mandated CT logging for years
They did, yes. Any CA caught issuing a non-logged cert would be in big trouble.
> ... and will not accept such a certificate
Do they not?
According to RFC 9162 including CT information inside the cert itself is optional, and the extension is noncritical. Clients are not required to support CT, and they MAY fetch inclusion proofs. Servers are supposed to send CT info via one of various methods - but they aren't required to supply a complete proof of inclusion. Considering how OCSP was implemented in practice, I highly doubt any browser is willing to completely block the connection until it has managed to fetch an inclusion proof - both from a speed perspective and a privacy perspective.
CT's main value is in giving the browser vendors a stick to hit the CA with in case of non-logging, which is indication that something fishy is going on. Send the cert itself to a mailing list and anyone can check with the logs. Log getting DDoSed? Just try again tomorrow, the CAs judgement can wait another day. This is completely different from having a browser verify the proof in realtime while setting up the connection, and having it fail hard if it can't be 100% sure.