what is the difference between these two things from the point of view of how much work you have to do?
- checking every update of every dependency to see if is a relevant urgent security update
- checking every update of every dependency to see if it turns out to be a supply chain exploit
am i still checking every update of every dependency? there's no heuristic here. either you check them all, or you get randomly exploited - either by using known vulnerable software or from supply chain attacked software.
It's a tradeoff, and I don't have hard data, but the cases where a reachable, exploitable, zero day CVE that requires an urgent immediate patch (usually unintentional vulnerability) vs complete dev machine / CI/CD takeover of a supply chain attack (malicious intent) - show that a 7 day cooldown (or even 24 hours) would be the safe choice. I should probably consider doing this research, didn't get to it yet.
I believe the point is that if you delay patches until X days after release, usually someone will catch it and the maintainer or the package manager will pull the infected release. Thus, by you doing nothing and waiting X days, you protect yourself by never even getting the bad release. Then on the flip side, you just keep up with urgent security updates and push bad ones through faster after vetting them.