alt Hacker NewsMy bet is that the prices will crash once OpenAI (and/or Antrophic) IPO's have happened.
Right now the biggest threat to their IPO's is that people realize that local models are good enough for whatever they're peddling, what's the most important factor to even running good enough models? RAM since you want the models in memory to not be total slogs.
Replies
You are saying there will be even more demand for RAM and that will cause the prices to crash?
If local models are good enough, doesn't that increase demand for DRAM as everyone buys DRAM for their poorly utilized local machines?
Surely it is a more efficient use of DRAM to run inference on shared hardware with large batch sizes and more utilization.
My bet is that we're not gonna see any adjustments in RAM pricing until one of the planned data center projects collapses in a spectacular way.
> that local models are good enough for whatever they're peddling
they are not. Unless you are satisfied with plausible, but mostly garbage output.
[dead]
But remember that markets can stay irrational longer than anyone can hold his breath. If they get more funding there's a good chance they'll invest more in the destruction of the remaining production capacity. Admitting that with normal pricing anyone could have a decent AI-machine for 2K is hard - prices for acceptable AI-machines most likely will go >10K first.