The market is more unpredictable than it’s been in a long, long time so I hesitate to make a firm prediction but to me the odds that SpaceX will be a successful IPO over a 3-6 month window are significantly lower now. S&P inclusion basically requires funds to hold a position by default, and per their own estimates $20tn of assets are indexed/benchmarked to the S&P.
Not to say I have an opinion one way or another, but why do you think that SpaceX odds to have a successful IPO is lower now?
They'll still be included in total market indexes (FTSE, MSCI, CRSP).
As I understand it, VTI will be a major thing.
Still, they're float adjusted (for the most part?).