All this singularity trajectory is really interesting. If they manage to build a model that is capable of building the next version of Claude (model and tooling) - wouldn't it be their interest at some point to keep it to themselves?

If we ever get to a point where the centaur period is over (when human + AI is not better than just AI) then what competitive advantage ANY human can have other than

- the money they already have

- luck?

- a good idea and good taste but if we assume AI can do better than any human, that also goes out the window

So, this whole singularity goes into a place where no one is really needed, the only thing that will "save us" (other than "The Expanse" like world / UBI) is if there will be no demand to the supply of AI work. Even if it's better. (example is - there is demand to seeing Magnus Carlsen play, there is no demand to the Stockfish on my phone getting into a stalemate with another Stockfish on another phone. Also people like to watch humans compete with humans, there is no demand to see a race between Usain Bolt and a rocket). So if people will not buy AI generated stuff (we'll get to a point where everyone will assume something AI generated because AI might get to a point where it is not as easy to identify it. E.g. it will stop looking like slop... but I believe services that give you a "human generated" 3rd party evidence can happen, again all based on supply and demand...)

So as we near singularity... All it takes is one open weights model, and one open harness that is capable of self improvement, and Anthropic's entire moat is gone. That open weight model might even be built with Claude Code + Mythos (once it's released).

But don't worry, all moats will be gone and we'll all just do yoga, read books and connect to each other because AI will produce everything for free using renewable energy, right? Or we'll all become batteries in a simulation, probably something in between.