Yeah, it is crazy to me. Yesterday I did the math how much it would take to fully replace "just" 1M SWEs: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48382414 . It turns out you need 380GW of constant power (or 80%+ of US current production). And I conservatively assumed 0.5J / token, which was a number calculated for llama3 8B parameters. Yeah, hardware and models are more efficient now, but I expect SOTA models to be at least 10x that and I don't think there was a 10x in efficiency since llama 3.

All of this to say that the AI hype is not considering the energy portion of the equation enough. It won't automate everything not because it can't but because there is just not enough energy to go around unless there is a 100x or more efficiency gain just around the corner.