>Normal people will still be able to get involved if they want to,
there isn't much evidence that this is happening. When you eyeball the average age of maintainers on mailing lists these days for prominent open source projects like the linux kernel, it's been steadily creeping up, to somewhere in the 50s now I'd guess. There's a complete dearth of people in their 20s or even 30s in particular in positions of responsibility, there's no next generations of leaders.
That's fatal in the long run. You need to have an apprenticeship system or something like a vocational pipeline to engage people in a structured way so that you can produce talent and also be objective and systematic. Something like a guild system you have in the DACH region where companies survive centuries, and that's not because random people write mails, it's because there's a industry wide support system and training process.
Yes but that predates AI & projects rejecting pull requests, so I would argue this is a separate unrelated phenomenon. If anything, the fact that despite accepting PRs, most projects have little new blood, means that PRs were rarely a significant pathway for future maintainers.