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omgJustTesttoday at 1:07 PM1 replyview on HN

My "oh sh* moment" with GenAI is ongoing and is watching all the correlated financials unwind when TSMC said "we can only support so much"[1].

Very few things in life experience exponential growth and assembled systems don't often stay that way if they don't become sigmoidal. ie its exponential and end is nigh xor its exponential then sigmoidal xor linear.

Also a bit hilarious to believe that a single 3 month cycle at TSMC could determine a severe amount of propped valutions.

[1] https://www.theverge.com/tech/943066/tsmc-ai-demand-struggle...


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Lplololopotoday at 4:59 PM

But it would still be very ignorant to just not follow it very very closely and take it serious if something throws a lot of signals like AI and Robotics does.

We are in 2026, supply chains are highly optimized which means we could make and deliver a lot of robots in a relative short period of time.

We also have solved all fundamental issues we had 20 years ago like communication thanks to the internet, translation and co.

We know have a system, which can be copy and pasted and run in parallel with a snap of a finger.

If (and this If is not that crazy) some breakthrough happens tomorrow, this can be used the day after tomorrow.

I currently say that it could become very very interesting in 5-15 years. I still follow AI very closely and i do not have the feeling anything is slowing down.

And independent of something happening, a lot of people did not find jobs due to this AI investment, a lot of jobs already disappeared too.

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