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airstriketoday at 4:06 PM1 replyview on HN

This isn't financial advice, but if they dropped 40-50%, things like consumer staples would go up. In fact, they did this Friday, when everything else melted.

The best defensive stock for those situations is WMT, but you can think of other similar names as you reason through the why. That's where I'd go. There are many ETFs such as VDC (Vanguard Consumer Staples).

If you don't want to be so defensive, you could go VTV which is basically "large cap value stocks" so it still includes some Tech like Intel but it's way more diversified into other industries.

Gold is more inflation-related, so I wouldn't go there, at least not for the 40-50% draw down scenario you're describing.


Replies

adabyrontoday at 5:11 PM

I think a tricky thing is names like WMT, COST, TJX already have high p/e ratios.

You could usually try utilities or energy but those are also high due to AI buildout & Iran.

I think gold could make a come back since it's beating down a bit this year. Treasuries or just a reasonable hedge with puts against your holdings may be the best bet.

Of course none of this is financial advice & is just open discussion looking for thoughts.