I’m seeing a lot of naive optimism about this decision.

The risk S&P takes by doing this is that they will still be forced to buy SpaceX, but a year after everybody else. Given that there is a massive amount of capital that you know will have to buy this stock in 12 months, that itself provides speculative reasons to buy it now.

The indices are in an unenviable position: a race to the bottom. The S&P 500 may be setting up its index funds simply to be the last buyer in a Ponzi scheme.

There is no guarantee that the market will find the “true value“ of SpaceX in the 12 month interval. Markets are frothy and speculative already, and they now have a built in exit liquidity provider.